Gold’s correction lower continues with the precious metal currently unable to break through a recent cluster of highs around $2,335/oz. level. Gold has broken below support from a short-term bearish flag formation and remains under the short-term, 20-day, simple moving average, adding to the short-term negative bias. To move higher, gold needs to break, and open, above the 20-dsma at $2,337/oz.
Initial support for the precious metal comes off the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,884/oz. ahead of a recent level of support just below at $2,280/oz. If this level is broken convincingly, then the 50-day sma, currently at $2,255/oz. comes into focus, before big figure support at $2,200/oz. and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $2,193/oz. The latter level should provide a reasonable level of support and stem any further move lower.
The bullish rally on gold continues to unfold, yet remarkably net-long exposure among large speculators and manage funds is not at a sentiment extreme by historical standards. It could be argued that is at or near an extreme by recent standards, given the glass ceiling ~200k (large specs) or ~150k (manage funds), but with prices rising at such velocity it suggests many remain on the sidelines and are just watching gold rise in awe.
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